DECISION MAKING • 15 ROUNDS
BEHAVIORAL ECONOMICS EXPERIENCE
The Risk Engine
Humans Are Terrible At Understanding Risk
A live decision-making simulation where audiences experience how humans consistently misjudge probability, danger, uncertainty, fear, and rare events.
Probability
Humans struggle to estimate risk accurately.
Emotion
Fear changes how we perceive danger.
Uncertainty
Rare events distort decision-making.
ROUND 1
Flying vs Driving
Which feels more dangerous?
Humans fear dramatic visible risks more than common statistical risks.
ROUND 2
Startup Survival
What percentage of startups fail within 10 years?
People consistently underestimate failure rates because success stories dominate visibility.
ROUND 3
The Lottery Illusion
Why do millions play lotteries despite terrible odds?
Humans overweight tiny probabilities when emotional payoff is extremely attractive.
ROUND 4
Cybersecurity Risk
A company delays cybersecurity investment for 3 years because “nothing happened yet.”
Humans underinvest in invisible preventive systems until disaster becomes emotionally real.
ROUND 5
Black Swan Events
How prepared are organizations for extremely rare global disruptions?
Humans build systems optimized for normal conditions, not improbable shocks.
ROUND 6
AI Risk
What is the greatest near-term AI risk?
People often focus on cinematic risks while ignoring slow systemic dependency risks.
ROUND 7
Market Bubbles
Why do intelligent investors repeatedly participate in bubbles?
Humans interpret rising prices as evidence of safety instead of increasing risk.
ROUND 8
Rare Disease Panic
A rare disease gets nonstop media coverage despite very low probability.
Availability bias makes emotionally vivid risks feel statistically larger.
ROUND 9
The Safety Illusion
People take more risks when they feel protected by safety systems.
Risk compensation causes humans to behave more aggressively when safety measures increase.
ROUND 10
Financial Risk
Which feels riskier emotionally?
Loss aversion makes losses psychologically stronger than equivalent gains.
ROUND 11
The Pandemic Effect
How long do humans remain highly cautious after a major crisis?
Humans normalize risk surprisingly quickly after emotionally intense events fade.
ROUND 12
Nuclear Energy
Why do many people fear nuclear energy despite low statistical accident rates?
Humans fear uncontrollable invisible risks far more than familiar everyday dangers.
ROUND 13
Social Media Risk
Which creates greater long-term societal risk?
Slow-moving risks often become normalized because they lack dramatic visibility.
ROUND 14
The Confidence Trap
Who usually appears most confident during uncertainty?
Confidence and competence are often weakly correlated during uncertainty.
FINAL INSIGHT
Humans Fear
Dramatic Risks
And Ignore Silent Ones
Most bad decisions under uncertainty come not from lack of intelligence — but from emotional distortion of probability and danger.
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